The building blocks of HA’s 17/18 jumps tracker: horses to take from Chepstow

The mud has settled since Chepstow and this was intended to be released a few days back, but there you go. None of the horses have run since so hey-ho you haven’t missed much.

The red carpet was out and the yards began to roll out some of their better winter horses. I’m taking five horses forwards from the weekend and using them to lay the foundations of this winter’s tracker. Get a tracker if you haven’t got one, merci.

I’m not one to fill my tracker before the season starts, I just don’t see the point. Horses change over the summer and who knows where they are headed. Updating them as you go is the best way and helps find those under the radar horses and prices.

Putting Finian’s Oscar and Samcro in your tracker? What’s the point? Unless you live in a cave you know when they are going to run and what comment do you put with them? “It’s a good horse that should win a Grade One or two.” Brilliant. Marching on.

Lostintranslation (C.Tizzard) 11-2
Running in the opening heat of the weekend, a Class 4 Novice Hurdle that will prove well above that tag in time. The action was eventful up the long home straight and the racetrack experience told for winner Dynamite Dollars.

But Lostintranslation, backed from 9s into 11-2, looks one of two to take forward from the race. This was his first run since being brought over from the PTP scene.

He stumbled badly three out but stuck on remarkably well and ended up only beaten a couple of lengths. He clearly will get a trip in time and will be a chaser of note in the coming seasons.C.Tizzard.jpg

That’s not to say he won’t make an impact this campaign and showed plenty of ability and potential, despite being notably fresh. The 5yo will win races in the coming months.

Fleminport (J.O’Neill) 6-1
From the same race as Lostintranslation, Jonjo O’Neill’s new recruit was another making his bow under rules, after being bought for £140,000.

The 4yo was one of few to make any notable ground from off the pace and can definitely be marked up for that. As mentioned already, the form of this race will be well above the official ‘Class 4’ standard and both runners deserve respect.

He never threatened the winner but was more than an eyecatcher, making steady progress over the last few hurdles, and like the runner-up will be winning races in the not too distant future. What price you get will depend on the race his trainer finds next.

Sam Spinner (J.O’Keefe) 8-1
By definition this was the Saturday feature, and was won by Court Minstrel, a yardstick you can put your life on.

But the horse to take from the race has to be Sam Spinner, a 5yo making his first start since February.

This was a marked step up on his other outings and he raced keenly out in front, but stayed on brilliantly as horses came and went. He would have used up a lot of petrol out in front but never looked like falling back.

Plenty had their chances two or three out but he kept on finding to finish a more than respectable second and may have won had he not drifted to the rail. He’s only been nudged up 3lbs and looks a horse to keep on side in a similar race or more straightforward handicap.

Vision Des Flos (C.Tizzard) 6-1
Onto Sunday, and this is the most obvious one out of the five for sure, but warranted nonetheless. It went somewhat under the noses of quite a few that this was his first run under rules.

He was keen through the early passages but settled eventually in the pack. He was well in the mix a couple out but had just exerted himself a bit much too soon.

This was only his second run, in a Grade Two, with two solid types out in front and connections will be thrilled with the showing. A long-term project he certainly is, but he’s only four and will swoop up a few prizes before we get to you know what.

Elgin (A.King) 3-1
Elgin ran in the days main handicap hurdle and on the face of it, with proven Grade form at the major meetings, looks a disappointing run not to have won.Elgin

 

However, he clearly needed the run and just didn’t push on when well in the mix over the last. He was given a bit of an easy time from there and I have no doubt he’ll be winning a handicap off his unaltered mark of 140.

He had to carry a significant weight too, and despite the 150 ceiling of the race, was top weight. Next time this shouldn’t be the case and that only enhances his chances further.

Tracker Update & Pick from Redcar

Tracker…

Windsor 1.45 – Groundnut (J Portman) 16/1

There’s nothing clever to this addition to the tracker apart from it was blatantly clear this horse is crying out for a step up in trip already. The trainer admitted this before the off and if granted 7F next time out, the juvenile will be a decent betting proposition. He was slow to break away and was always playing catch up, without the pace to ever gain on the frontrunners, before closing on third at the death. It was as an encouraging debut as connections could have hoped for and so long as the compilers didn’t pay too close attention to the running of the race, he’ll be worth a shot at 7F. The winner looks good for Eve Johnson Houghton and will go on from this race up in class no problem, while the second horse already has some average form in the book.

Today’s Pick…

4.00 Redcar – Desert Ace (I Jardine) 6/1

Nothing stuck out at me today with much conviction, but Desert Ace looks to have a great opportunity at getting back into the winner’s enclosure at Redcar. He’s consistent at this level but has just faded out of contention in the closing stages in his recent runs. He’s been dropped to only a lb higher than his previous win and the headgear fitted for the first time will look to keep him driving out in those final strides where he keeps losing his races. The ground is the only slight concern, as any more rain could harm his chances. Backable at an EW price, on a quiet day, the 6YO is easily the bet of the day.

One for your notebook, one for your tracker

With the flat season slowly but surely sliding into life, the early three year old maidens can give a lot of guidance and spring a few surprises a long the way. You see some overhang of horses that just couldn’t get out at two, as well as the later bloomers that doesn’t prevent them from making an impact in the bigger leagues. At Nottingham today, two stood out for various reasons and for different long-term reasons.

Notebook:

1 50 VALCARTIER (J Gosden) 11/4, Class 5 3YO Maiden, 1M0.5F, Good to Firm

He simply couldn’t have done it any easier and William Buick was looking around at the 2F pole as surprised as anyone that no one remotely looked like putting up a form of challenge. While nothing really fired in behind, it was an eye catching run nonetheless and the 3YO displayed good attributes and a more than willing attitude on only his second start. His sole 2YO start was one to forget and it makes sense to draw a line straight through that. He beat Tango Fire (R Hannon) comfortably; a Frankel progeny that in all honesty didn’t show. It’s very early days but the Godolphin newcomer could easily step up in trip and class right away.

 

Tracker:

2 50 MAJOR JUMBO (K Ryan) 9/4, Class 3 3YO Conditions, 5F, Good to Firm

This was comfortably the unluckiest horse of the day – he had a horrible run and once he was re-routed he still managed to finish a very close second to Kyllang Rock (J Tate). Kevin Ryan’s runner was bashed about and 5lb claimer Lewis Edmunds did well to pull him out as quickly as he did. He’s worth slipping into your tracker for his next couple of starts just for betting purposes. If the handicapper isn’t too harsh and a potential trip over 6F coming from late, his turn of foot should see him home in the near future.