Friday at Cheltenham, The Open Meeting

Safe to say I’m jealous of anyone making it Gloucestershire for a day of racing this weekend, let alone all three. Things are beginning to bubble away in the jumps fold and Friday’s card is competitive, with a number of young pretenders trying to lay down their marker and put early reputation’s on the line.

12.40 | C3 HC Chase (Amateurs) | 3m1f |
The first race and a bet from me. I’m sticking with Indian Castle (15/2) after his comeback run here last time. After a huge absence he ran a blinder, when punted in from 10s to an SP of 9/2, and was just a bit far back to really serve it up to the runaway winner.

He looked tired over the last, but plugged on well and all logic suggests he’ll come on for that effort and the subsequent three week break.

He’s only been punished with a pound rise and remains very fairly treated on some of his previous form. The same top amateur is booked again and I’m confident he’ll be right in the hunt again, even if this is slightly more competitive.

1.15 | C3 HC Hurdle | 2m0.5f 0-125 |
I’m getting the two bets out the way early and Oxwich Bay (5/1) is just too well handicapped to ignore.

He still looked green when second at Warwick only a week ago, but that was a solid reappearance and he’s due up 6lbs for that. A stiffer two miles should suit here and plenty of his novice hurdle form suggests a mark of 115 is more than generous.

Oxwich Bay is up in grade here and there’s a few unexposed types lurking, no more so than the favourite Counter Shy, but he more than showed he’s up to this level on his latest start. Favourites also have a bad record in the race, only one has obliged since 2008.

1.50 | C2 HC Chase | 2m 0-150 |
This is a weak race for the grade and money on offer; demonstrated by top weight Bright New Dawn, carrying 11’12 despite only being rated 143, 7lbs under the upper limit.

Not a betting heat for me, but a decent spectacle nonetheless. Phil Middleton is unlikely to get a better shot at a first Cheltenham winner for a while, with favourite Exitas looking to build on his Listed win at Ascot. He’s up to 133 now, but beat horses rated well into the 140s that day. Still a tad short for me in a race like this however.

The Tizzard pair are both interesting, especially Shanahan’s Turn who’s had his issues since jumping over from Ireland but is 10lb lower than when last seen and has been used to much hotter company than this. We’ll see where we’re at anyhow.

Exitas pulling away from Quite By Chance at Ascot

2.25 | C2 Novice Chase | 2m4.5f  |
You can always rely on Cheltenham for a decent novice chase. Why we can’t save them for weekends like this I don’t know. Allowing Modus, Yanworth and Might Bite constant walkovers until the trainer is satisfied just doesn’t make sense. It’s a sport, not a petting zoo.

Anyway, Finian’s Oscar. While you’d be hard pushed to say you were impressed by his chase debut at Chepstow, he won and did enough to suggest he’ll be just as good over fences. It would be fantastic if he really put on a show for the first time, no more so than for the Potts family.

We’ll learn plenty more today and why I can’t back him at even money giving away 8lbs against a decent couple of rivals, I expect him to win and start to live up to the billing.

Movewiththetimes was a tad disappointing on his chasing bow, but wasn’t given an overly hard time. He’ll need to step up on that to really throw himself in the mix here and the step up in trip is long overdue.

William Henry is another fascinating contender but I’m still to warm to him. He’s rated 145 but hasn’t won anything of note and has been beaten anytime he’s come up against something half-progressive in the novice ranks.

3.00 | C2 Cross Country | 3m6f |
Part of the reason many love Cheltenham, a truly unique race, course and lineup you won’t see anywhere else.

The Cause Of Causes wheelbarrow can’t come out before Christmas but it’s in the shed waiting. In fact I can’t take any of JPs at the prices and while not interested financially, the Czech runners or Aubusson would be my line of thought.

On The Blind Side: A horse with a growing reputation

3.35 | Grade 2 ‘Ballymore’ Novice Hurdle | 2m5f |
What a race to finish the day. Plenty of intriguing, early season form lines come together with any number holding a serious case.

Picking one is a task I haven’t got the time or the will for as ultimately you’d be guessing. Vision Des Flos is a long-term project in my eyes and will be the one to get closest to the top, but doesn’t tickle me here.

On The Blind Side flags form has played out well and he did everything well enough at Aintree to suggest this is well within his reach so early. Nicky Henderson isn’t one to rush things which suggests he must be showing up well at home, just like Altior…

Momella is a very interesting runner given the conditions and weight she gets, 9/2 could look very generous. Not generous enough however, and despite what Nigel Twiston-Davies says I couldn’t have Calett Mad down in trip despite my fondness of the horse.

The Persian War looked good on the clock and picked up a boost with Amour De Nuit but has begun to encounter a few knocks and bruises and Poetic Rhythm is probably the right price in such a field with a penalty.

FRIDAY BETS:
Indian Castle 15/2
Oxwich Bay 5/1

Gooluch’

 

Thursday debrief: The curious case of Henderson & where next for Alpha Des Obeaux?

Ludlow
A quiet enough card at Ludlow, but a Nicky Henderson horse showed some talent in the opener and is worth a further look. While in the last a thumping win for Phoenix Dawn gives a horse I really like this season, The Statesman, a significant boost.

Sunshade (N.Henderson) – C4 Mares’ Maiden Hurdle, 1m7.5f
There was a sizeable drift on Sunshade, a general 5/2 overnight out to an SP of 6/1. But that mattered little and the four-year-old filly put on a nice performance.

Documented or not, Henderson’s yard has been slow to the boil even by his standard this autumn. I don’t think there’s anymore to the Altior news in terms of a problem within the yard but who knows after this week. I’ve marked any winner up as plenty have fallen by the wayside without much attention paid.

The race was run at a decent gallop, and Sunshade switched off nicely throughout, before moving up under some gentle urgings. She’s bred with some speed in the mix and used that through the home straight, beating a more than useful yardstick in Oscar Rose into second comfortably.

It was a tidy performance and she’ll be a factor in some mares’ races over a sharp two miles if possible.

Clonmel
A midweek treat from Clonmel, and just another four-timer for Gordon Elliot, as you do.

Alpha Des Obeaux clearing away over the last

Alpha Des Obeaux (M.Morris) Grade 2 Chase, 2m4.5f
He’ll forever be one of those horses I fear. He can be super talented on the day, it just depends on how he struts out of the horsebox onto the racetrack.

He made an encouraging comeback behind Total Recall, but then threw in a stinker in the JNWine at Down Royal as his fan club had just got their hopes up once more.

I don’t want to jinx it, again, but he looked back on the straight and narrow again today and whatever Mouse has slipped into his feed I’d keep it going.

He pulled clear of two fit and in form horses, and jumped well bar the second from home. They appear to want to keep him to handicaps now, which will be a hard task with the weight he’ll get from today.

Yet again, it would take some planning to squeeze a G1 out of him and Gigginstown aren’t exactly short of middle distance chasers.

Wednesday debrief: Tizzard with another potential star & Fry going from strength to strength

Bangor
The ground was soft enough at Bangor for a good midweek card. Harry Fry landed a double in North Wales and it was the novice, If The Cap Fits, that once again impressed.

If The Cap Fits (H.Fry) – C4 Nov. Hurdle, 2m0.5f
Lalor’s form has been shaky since his bumper win at Aintree, but one horse that’s really stepped forward from the race is If The Cap Fits. The yard are flying and graded races undoubtedly await this one.

The form of his first hurdle win has had a couple of boosts and he had no problem under a penalty today. He also clearly likes some ease in the ground.

The field was well strung out over the last, and the first two in behind can take credit too. The race was run over seven seconds quicker than a preceding maiden hurdle, albeit an average one, but helps rubber stamp the performance. He’s good.

Ayr
Not much was cracking at Ayr, although it was a good day for Lucinda Russell for two reasons.

Emissaire, a horse she thinks highly of, got off the mark in a quietly taking fashion and will be better than the remainder by a good distance.

Arguably more pleasing will be the win of Acdc in the first, who was second behind her new big stable hope, Big River, in his previous novice chase.

After One For Arthurs injury, Russell has big plans for Big River and a Scottish or Welsh Grand National don’t look a million miles away. He’s by far the most exciting horse in the yard.

Exeter
Yanworth was the star of the show in another run of the mill novice chase that we are supposed to get excited about. He was actually jumping better than his debut before the fall and I’m not sure anyone should read too much into it.

White Moon (C.Tizzard) – C4 Nov. Hurdle, 2m5.5f
The star of the day was White Moon, a big but babyish five-year-old that has largely gone under the radar in the Tizzard stable until now.

He went clear remarkably easily despite never being asked for much, in testing conditions. No doubt he gets three miles by the end of the season.

While I’ve already seen some criticism from the clock gang, the ground was worse than given officially and I always struggle to trust the clock in a race where the horse hasn’t been asked for anything.

The time of his first effort show’s he’s already above average and still has plenty of scope for more.

Wednesday debrief: rating the Chepstow newcomers & an impressive novice from the North

Chepstow
Going: Soft
It was a solid enough card at Chepstow with the maiden hurdles and bumper bound to throw a horse or two up. It’s not an easy track to race at for inexperienced types, but a few came to the fore and the 2.35 in particular will prove a hot race in time.

The Last Day (E.Williams) – C4 Maiden Hurdle, 2m
The original favourite was pulled out early this morning and that left The Last Day with not much to beat. He was entitled to win it, with the field lacking much depth.

I’ll be very hesitant at using this as future form and there wasn’t much bumper form to hold anything to account either.

I wouldn’t be rushing to back the winner next time, despite appearing to win fairly cosily. He was still immature and will be one for the long-term, not so much for a hard-hitting hurdle campaign

2.35: C5 Maiden Hurdle, 2m3.5f
The front two, Chooseyourweapon and Gowiththeflow, in this race are clearly talented individuals and both serious prospects heading forwards.

In my eyes the second place horse may well make more of an immediate impact and I’m not sure we’ll be seeing too much of Chooseyourweapon of this season.

But the race will produce many a winner and I’d recommend keeping an eye on the horses at least down to sixth or seventh on their next outings.

Mister Malarkey was one that travelled nicely in behind and caught my eye. Undoubtedly he’ll appreciate further and from the remainder of the field is the one going in my tracker that I’ll be most looking forward to again.

Beyond The Clouds after his easy win at Musselburgh

Musselburgh
Going: Good
Beyond The Clouds (K.Ryan) – C4 Novice Hurdle, 1m7.5f
It was no surprise he won the way he did, but the form will have a degree of trust to it with the 132-rated Golden Jeffrey running his race in second.

Golden Jeffrey was under a double penalty and always facing a near impossible task, but had run well at Cheltenham before, finishing 7L behind the impressive  Twobeelucky.

Kevin Ryan’s four-year-old won hard held and looks to be one of the best novices we’ve seen yet from the North. The time is worth taking into account, as he won in a better time than the 0-120 HC Hurdle later on the card at a canter carrying a heavier weight.

He looks to be a mid to low 140 horse already in my books and looks ready to step up and take on some better company.

 

 

 

Tuesday debrief: Exeter takes, featuring Politologue & Ballyoptic

Exeter
Going: Soft

On comfortably the best Tuesday of the season thus far, the rain put a bit of a dampener on proceedings with many hoping for the sounder surface that was predicted when declaring.

Yet there were two horses that relished conditions, and both look good prospects for the season ahead. Politologue came out on top in the days feature race and Ballyoptic’s stamina came to the fore with a confident front running display in the Novice Chase.

Politologue (P.Nicholls) – Haldon Gold Cup, G2 Hc Chase, 2m1.5f
Firstly it’s important to note the ground when considering how this race may play out in time. A number of these were on their seasonal comeback and trainers wouldn’t have been anticipating the testing conditions and it’s easy to draw a line under for the likes of Ar Mad and Forest Bihan.

Paul Nicholl’s pair, Politologue and San Benedeto, pulled well clear of the field, with what was a fair old gallop up top. I thought Politologue may need the run with bigger targets in mind come Christmas time. Connections confirmed this afterwards which he can be marked up for.

He’s value for more than the margin of victory too. San Benedeto had the benefit of a prep run and had Politologue not idled in front it would have been far cosier. How tired he got come the final strides suggests, adding to his well publicised fall at Aintree, any hope of him getting further as was expected last season is dead in the water.

A campaign based around the Tingle Creek looks the focus and he may just be under rated in a few circles. His jumping is his best attribute and bowling a long at the front of a true 2m race will be perfect. While Altior will remain unperturbed in his box, he’ll still have to be near enough his best come December.

Ballyoptic winning on chase debut today

Ballyoptic (N.Twiston-Davies) – C2 Novice Chase, 3m
The old cliche was quickly banded around. ‘The fences woke him up, he had to give them a look, he was more careful.’ Arguably true; but just because a horse doesn’t jump hurdles smoothly doesn’t mean he can’t take a fence. To me he’s always wanted a fence.

It was his stamina that proved too much for his useful rivals. The ground was becoming more and more testing as the afternoon wore on and it suited Ballyoptic perfectly, the others less so. He had some useful yardsticks toiling in behind early on and improved steadily as the race progressed.

The form should play out reasonably strong and I have no hesitation in saying Ballyoptic won well and looks a promising stayer judged on that. Elegant Escape was second again, having finished runner-up to the solid Mia’s Storm at Chepstow, and will win a similar race soon while giving this race another layer of form to trust.

The race was run just under ten seconds quicker than the 0-130 handicap ran afterwards, which again boosts the form. While you’d expect it from a horse rated 155 over hurdles, it allows you to the bill the race as what it was and trust the form long-term.

He’s not short of speed either and while the four-miler was quickly mentioned, I think the RSA would be the likely option for which he’s as short as 12-1 and as big as 25-1 in a couple of books.

Elegant Escape is worth a follow over his next couple of starts. Colin Tizzard clearly thinks enough of him and he’ll win in the near future. Barney Dwan clearly needed the run, yet I wouldn’t be backing him over fences anytime soon.

 

Tuesday selections – Kempton

On the best Tuesday of the jumps season so far, my two picks come from an AW meeting under the floodlights. As you do.

One’s been in the tracker since his debut and looks to have found an opening here, albeit the larger prices he’s been going off have now disappeared. In the next we have been Hugh Taylor’d but I’m taking the main man on with a stablemate.

Check back later for today’s debrief, with a focus on some top racing from Exeter.

Kempton (AW)
5.45 U S S MISSOURI (E.Walker) 11-4
Ed Walker’s two-year-old has been in my tracker since his debut at Kempton over 7f, in what was and has been proven a decent race for the level.

I backed him confidently the next time out at a price and he was well supported considering the unfavourable draw.

A step up to a mile is a plus judged on his two runs. He’s drawn in one which can be problematic at times, but on the whole is much preferred to a wide berth.

There’s a couple of interesting newcomers amongst the field, but little has been backed so far and Kempton’s bend makes it not the easiest track to make your first run.

The FAV is a no go price for obvious reasons, showing little on debut when quiet in the market. It’s third time lucky for Walker’s juvenile.

6.15 THAT”S MY GIRL (R.Hannon) 14-1
There’s too much going for this filly to ignore at such odds. She’s back to a winning mark and has a further 7lb off her back thanks to the more than capable Rossa Ryan.

She’s been quiet since her Newbury win but showed signs of being back on song when seen here over 7f at the end of September. She was never travelling that day, stuck in the rear but snuck up the rail to finish fifth.

Another shot at the mile has to be seen as worth a go and I can’t see her being too far away in a poor field at such generous odds.

Under the radar European ‘Raiders’ it could pay to follow at Del Mar

The Breeders’ Cup is one of, if not the meeting of the season. And yes I mean around the world. It’s a deluge of Grade 1s and this year an incredible amount of European horses are heading over, led by thirteen from newly crowned world record holder Aidan O’Brien.

The usual big names are out in San Diego and ready for the big races. Ulysses, Highland Reel, Ribchester and Marsha are household names, not just here but in the US too. You’ll unlikely find much value with the regulars and while I’m not putting you off any of their claims I’ve highlighted a few horses below at wild prizes from the British and Irish shores.

FRIDAY
Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1m
Capla Temptress (W.Mott) 20-1
Although officially not under the banner of Marco Botti anymore – I’m not starting off under a good foot featuring a non-European horse – he’s done all his racing for the Newmarket trainer and we’ll carry on as normal.

This horse holds a great chance in one of the earlier official Breeders’ Cup races. He’s now based out in the US with William Mott, and his American owners sent him out there after an impressive Grade 1 win at Woodbine.

He did things easily that day, despite what it may say on paper and suffered plenty of traffic problems early on that day. Del Mar is statistically a finishers’ track, and just as at Woodbine that will be the route on Friday evening.

The form of his Grade 1 win has taken some huge boosts, with the second winning an 80K field next run and the third winning a Grade 3 and is in this field at a much shorter price.

Conditions will be nigh on perfect, and it’s not just the Canadian form that plays out nicely. The form of the Group 3 Sweet Solera is strong too. Second that day was Juliet Capulet (who reopposes here) won the Group 2 Rockfel and even the fifth has won well since.

Undoubtedly he has plenty to find with the Ballydoyle pair of Happily and September, but at a huge price with a good draw it’s worth a shot at Capla Temptress, a horse proven in conditions and over a mile.

Capla Temptress winning at Woodbine for Marco Botti

Juvenile Turf, 1m
Sands Of Mali (R.Fahey) 33-1
33-1 is a huge price for Sands Of Mali in such an open and competitive field. There was no crazy potion that forced me to come up with this one. It’s simple…

If you simply put a line through his Middle Park effort, where he was clearly not on a going day, he comes into this with flying form claims.

His Gimrack win is more than solid and both Invincible Army and Cardsharp have impressed since. This is clearly another step up, but he has the potential to cause a real upset.

James Garfield is 6-1 and although he beat Invincible Army at Newbury in the Mill Reef, he was considered a bit lucky that day and the Dettori factor has shrunk the price for that camp.

The trip is an obvious question mark for many in this field, including Sands Of Mali, but if you are going to get the trip it’s this mile on rattling quick ground. He’s drawn in three and out of the European runners is one of the least exposed.

Fahey won’t be sending him out here for a jolly and he’s had a nice enough break since Newmarket. He was supported that day and if bouncing back from that no-show he will certainly outrun the mystifying odds of 33s.

Sands Of Mali winning the Gimrack at York

SATURDAY
Qatar Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes, 5f
Corinthia Knight (A.Watson) SP
This is officially not a Breeders’ Cup race and is yet to be priced up at the time of writing. Yet he’s unlikely to be anything in the top half of the market and will be at least a double figure 20ish shot.

He’s a pure speed horse and has been at his best when heading to the fore and aiming at the line, not even thinking of what is happening in behind. He’s put up plenty of good figures throughout his campaign and his effort behind Invincible Army (yes, him again) at Kempton should be marked up, considering it was over a false trip and didn’t go to plan early on.

There’s a number of quieter efforts in the mix as well, but that’s what you get with the longer-priced shots. Archie Watson will go onto big things in the years to come and has already built up a reputation of placing his horses with aplomb.

I’m unsure he’d be taking one of his stars out to San Diego just because and once again he’s slid nicely under the radar.

Archie Watson’s Corinthia Knight

Breeders’ Cup Turf, 1m4f
Seventh Heaven (A.O’Brien) 12-1
Less of an under the radar performer on the whole, but a filly that’s been largely forgotten about in this field amongst a strong European contingent.

Her two latest efforts were clearly well below par, but she’s back on a sweeter surface she’s a different filly all together. This will surely be her swansong and it’s unlikely AOB will leave anything behind.

She wasn’t beaten far in the Fillies and Mares last season and followed that with a second behind the mercurial Jack Hobbs in the Sheema Classic.

The form claims are there for all to see and the ground is a huge plus. She’s a hugely talented horse and while Highland Reel and Ulysses are plainly tough nuts to crack, I geneuinly think this has been the target a long way out.

AOB was surprisingly satisfied with her Arc run and at 12-1 I’m happy to take a punt and let the big guns fight it out if that’s the way it falls.

Seventh Heaven finishing second to Jack Hobbs

Thursday selections – Chelmsford

Bit late today, apologies but plenty going on. I missed the boat with a pair at Lingfield so will skip straight over to Chelmsford with a bet in one of the quieter races of the day.

Breeders’ Cup previews are close to being done and should be ready by tomorrow at the latest. A couple of views from the US help add to the obvious European interest and known form.

Chelmsford
6.25 JUNOESQUE (J.Gallagher) 11-1
I’m a big old believer in horses dropping down into C6’s as an angle and in what are usually saturated, poor races taking little ability to get up.

Junoesque is fairly lightly-raced for a race of this stature and at 3yo can still progress past this 0-60.

He’s a tad inconsistent and has found a few maidens tough going, but arguably on his only AW run thus far produced his best effort and that was over this course and distance two starts back.

He was fourth on that occasion. The winner is rated 80 now, the second won on his next run and also now rated 80, while the third is rated 76 and finished sixth in a decent C4 at Kempton. You get the point, that run gives him a huge hand in this field.

He looked comfortable on the surface and it was strange to see connections jump straight back onto the grass. The draw is no concern and he should go mightily close in this grade at a juicy 11-1.

Wednesday selections – Fakenham

I’ll keep it short and sweet today. There’s not much out there that caught my eye, but one at Fakenham stood out as an EW bet to nothing.

It’s another quiet front on the racing front today. The Breeders’ Cup continues to dominate the headlines, and rightly so. The Europeans are sending over a strong team and I’ll shortly be posting a piece that includes a few entries that have floated under the radar somewhat and might just outrun their odds.

Fakenham
3.10 SHINOOKI (A.Hales) 9-2
Shinooki looks to have an outstanding chance in a weakish looking handicap hurdle at Fakenham. At the odds I’m happy to put an EW bet down. With eight runners, I can’t see him out of the top three.

He returned in a much better race than this from his summer layoff and wasn’t disgraced in fifth. He’s dropped another 3lb for that, back on his last winning mark of 110.

I’m sure he’d prefer a slight bit of ease in the ground, but I’m not fussy when it comes to the ground in the middle ranges and neither is the horse by the look of his form.

This looks a good opening to build on his comeback run and get his season up and running.

Fakenham is often referred to as a specialist track as well, and from six runs here the ten-year-old has won three, finished second in two more with a third for good measure. Goo’luck.

 

Tuesday selections – Bangor, Chepstow & Wolverhampton

It’s been a sticky month and for the first time since May 2016 when we started, there’s the possibility I could post a lost for the month. But there’s still today and I’m hopeful I’ve got two that can keep the record in tact.

At Bangor in the opening two races, JP McManus has a strong hand and two horses that could be anything over their respected new ventures. Modus was a much improved hurdler last season and ended the campaign rated 156.

Nicholls has only served us positive updates and has regularly reeled off that there could be 10-20lbs improvement in him over fences, that would be quite something.

In the novice hurdle Dostal Phil is another exciting addition to the famous green and yellow. He won his bumper in France before being bought for just shy of 300K. JP also bought the second, who has since romped home on his rules debut here in the UK. Binoculars ready.

I like Wylde Magic at Chepstow (2.50) and really can’t see him losing, but the price has gone and make of it what you will.

Bangor
2.00 PEARLITA (H.Daly) 7-2
Still only a 5yo, Pearlita has improved plenty over the summer and still looks well ahead of the handicapper.

She’s up another 7lb for a cosy enough win at Uttoxeter where she can marked up for a number of reasons. She remains quirky/immature, whichever way you see it, and refused to race two starts back.

In her win at Uttoxeter she was close to doing the same again but won that day despite the slow start. She’s an in-running punters dream and if she jumps off expect the money to be put down.

She clearly enjoys a decent surface and gets that at Bangor today. The Skelton horse is uninspiring and looks over bet as per usual. Many are coming into it off a long lay-off and I priced up Pearlita as a clear favourite and am surprised she’s not, even under a lofty top weight.

Wolverhampton
6.10 COOL BREEZE (D.Simcock) 4-1
As you can see this is not a Breeders’ Cup warm up and Cool Breeze therefore holds a huge chance in such a tame affair.

He’s the horse to beat and I can’t see many threatening him from his draw in stall one over the minimum trip. He was a winner of a C5 only three starts ago and is only 4lb higher today.

He remains a bit complicated, and that likely explains why he’s failed to kick on up the grades, but I’m happy to hope for a going day at 4s in such a poor race.